190322 militaryThe Kremlin demonstrates the full readiness to engage in military intervention in order to change power in Ukraine because of the intensification of domestic political struggle ahead of elections.


The conclusion was made by the experts of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies" (CACDS).


“In the first half of March, 2019, the CACDS experts recorded a significant deterioration of the security situation around Ukraine. First of all, this state of affairs is a consequence of the intensification of domestic political struggle in the country and the creation of conditions in neighboring Russia for use of such a situation, including power scenarios. It is important to note the full readiness of the Kremlin to engage in military intervention in order to change power in Ukraine and establish a Russian protectorate,” reads the analytical report.


The greatest challenge of the time, the authors of the article believe, was the appearance and public discussion of the new military doctrine of Russia, which was presented by Chief of Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov on March 2. Although the document is formally aimed at intimidating the West, mainly to change the rhetoric of Washington's communication with Moscow, it directly threatens Ukraine.


“In fact, any destabilized course of election events, including those created artificially by, for example, a series of provocations or sabotage, may be used by the Kremlin to use a power scenario against Ukraine,” the experts emphasize.


As noted, the presidential election campaign becomes a determining factor in the impact on the future scenario of state development. “Powerful and influential moment in the election campaign was, in particular, the opposition of Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov,” the report reads.


The confrontation between the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, the corruption scandal around the State Concern "Ukroboronprom", etc. are the factors, which significantly exacerbate already complicated political situation inside the country.


In addition, the experts point to the significant deterioration of the geopolitical situation, which has created an opportunity for Russia to implement extremely risky scenarios. “So, in the occupied Crimea, Russian troops planned to conduct military exercises with the participation of 10 thousands of artillerymen and about three thousand units of missile artillery weapons (the report "Crimea Realities" referring to the Russian media), which could really threaten Ukraine. In particular, the negative rhetoric of the Moscow-Washington Dialogue can transform into a transformation of Ukraine into the area of settling disputes between the Russian Federation and the United States,” the analysts note.


As noted, during the exercises it is planned to launch missile complexes "Iskander-M", "Bal", "Bastion", missile launchers and barrel artillery systems. The training will also be held at 20 landfills - in Astrakhan, Rostov, Volgograd regions, Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, in the North Caucasus, as well as in the territories of Russian military bases in Abkhazia, Armenia, and South Ossetia.


“This testifies to the real introduction into the life of the "doctrine of Gerasimov." In this context, it is worth mentioning the pace of training the troops. For example, on March 1, Russian missile launchers trained to launch missile attacks using Bastion and Ball in the occupied Crimea. In general, after the occupation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has been regularly conducting the military exercises on the peninsula,” the authors of the article emphasize.


Analyzing the situation at the international level, the CACDS experts stress that more Western experts are inclined to believe that Ukraine needs more political support, and the United States and their closest European allies need to develop a Ukrainian version of the Marshall Plan. “Under the current regime of the Kremlin there is no military solution. In particular, the National Interest in March of this year noted if Ukraine succeeds in creating a viable, comprehensive and well-functioning democratic state, Russia will cease to expand and is likely to collapse, as happened with the Soviet Union at 1991 year,” the experts note.




Read the analytical report in Ukrainian here

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